Australia Unemployment Rate Vs Stock Market Correlation

The current stock market doesn't reflect the current economy situation. Is this true? Let's see the chart below to compare unemployment rate vs stock market in 25 Years

From 1995-2009 (14 years), you can see that they were inversely correlated. When unemployment rate went down, the stock market when up. However, starting from 2009-2016 (7 years), both were kind of positively correlated. From 2016-2020 (4 years), it was back to inverse correlation. Staring from 2020 until now (1 year), it is positive correlation. 

Inverse correlation means stock market does reflect the current economy and vice-versa. If you look at this 25 years of history.
  • Stock market reflects the economy - total 18 years
  • Start market does NOT reflect the economy - total 8 years

Can I say 70% (18/26 x 100) of the time, stock market does reflect the economy? Also, when you see the unemployment rate goes down, it is likely the stock market goes up. So in other words, stock market does reflect the economy only when employment rate moves down.

Since unemployment rate is expected going to be down moving forward, I think stock market is probably going to be higher instead of crashing as some of you may have predicted. 


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