AGL Energy Is Testing the Support Level at $12

This is the monthly long-term chart for AGL. It is currently staying at $12 for > 1 week and testing this support level (i.e. 0.786 fib retrenchment from 2001)

It can potentially drop further as this stock has broken the major trend line. The next support line is at $10.44. I have to wait and see what happen next. 

If you're a value investor, you probably interested in this stock. Current P/E ratio is 7.5 which is all time low since 2018. It is also interesting to see if this P/E ratio can drop further.

The only thing I"m not so comfortable is forecast AGL growth is -30% in 1 to 3 years. If I use this data to calculate the intrinsic value (based on my assumptions), it worth only for $6. This is ~100% overvalued! However, based on Simply Wall St calculation, this stock is 53% overvalued!

I already have 2 positions in AGL (that is before I know how to calculate intrinsic value). I still believe this stock is good for long term but ETF may can perform better than this.  Also, dividend is >4% in 5 years average.

So my plan is WAIT. Wait for further confirmation before I take any extra positions in this stock.  Probably is a very long wait. I expect this stock will go side-ways similar to 2008-2015.